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Both India and Pakistan are more interested in demonstrating to the rest of the world that they are willing to talk to their unfriendly neighbour than in actually talking. Pakistan knows that talks will not persuade India to let go of Jammu and Kashmir and New Delhi is aware that talking to any one of Pakistan’s multiple power centres is fruitless. Still, both sides go through the motions of preparing to talk but are ever ready to abandon the talks if that suits domestic politics.
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And this has little to do with the specifics of the Ufa statement between Modi and Sharif. That statement allows scope for differing interpretations. All outstanding issues — when the statement agrees to have talks on these, that would include Kashmir, from Pakistan’s point of view. Even the reference to terror is not a clean, unambiguous specification of terror — what has been agreed to be discussed is everything related to terror. It is not straightforward that this everything automatically excludes the original contention that has spawned overt and covert wars between the two countries.
If the Modi government allows the Pak National Security Advisor, Sartaj Aziz to meet with Kashmiri separatist leaders and still goes ahead with the scheduled NSA-level talks, it would show up the cancellation of the foreign secretary level talks a year ago as having been immature. There is no reason for Modi to allow such a conclusion to be reached. He would much rather be known as the tough Indian PM who showed the separatist Hurriyat leaders their place.
For Pakistan, to go ahead with the NSA level talks after New Delhi thwarts Aziz’s consultation with the Kashmiri separatists would amount to admitting that the Nawaz Sharif government values good relations with India over Pakistan’s founding claim over Kashmir. This is not politically admissible for Islamabad.
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