This is a great passage of important phrases for English stenography skill test dictation playlist. You can exercise of this dictation online or to downloading audio file. Dictation transcription start – The RBI governor Raghuram Rajan’s warning that India would have to counter any long term plans of the Chinese to devalue the yuan and gain a competitive edge in international trade will only add to the pressures in currency markets. Though the further softening of the rupee to 65.89 per dollar today, bringing its down to is weakest position in almost two years, is attributed to the reduction of holdings by global funds across emerging markets including India, the fears of yuan depreciating a little more following a further softening in Chinese manufacturing growth also added to the momentum.
Rajan’s diatribe against Chinese was inevitable given that the central bankers across the emerging markets have time and again warned about currency wars for some time now. With the Chinese currency devalued by around 4% last week and many analysts predicting a further devaluation in the next year India concerns are unlikely to diminish in the coming days. And with Indian exports going down month after month throughout the calendar year and with the prospects of a global recovery in trade remaining feeble as ever the country has few options but to match devaluation of major economies even though it knows that it will only end up in a lose lose scenario for all nations.
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But the breakout of an unrelenting currency war is unlikely for many reasons. Currency wars are harmful not only because it increases uncertainties and pushes up volatility of currency markets and disrupts world trade but also because it increases costs of trading and affects fund flows as volatility impacts on the flow of capital with funds getting parked in more stable and strong currencies and hitting emerging markets very badly.
Moreover, the impact of a Chinese devaluation of the yuan on its smaller Asian neighbours, with which it enjoys strong trade ties, is going to be limited. This is because almost a dozen Asian currencies have been tracking the yuan since Chinese allowed its currency to float within a small band against the dollar at the start of the end of the last decade as they have increasingly integrated their economies to the Chinese supply chains thereby forcing them to calibrate their currencies vis-à-vis the yuan rather than the dollar. This will limit any positive impact of the yuan devaluation on exports.
Moreover how much a yuan devaluation will help Chinese exports remain uncertain? This is because Chinese exports are very import intensive and any steady depreciation of the currency will also raise input costs and constrain profit margins. Moreover, a depreciating yuan will also add to the costs of major imports like oil and add to the inflationary pressures in the economy, something China can ill afford given its shifting stance from exports to consumption based growth.
And the Chinese also knows that positive impact of a currency devaluation on export growth will be minimized not only by competitive devaluation both by partner nations and competitors but also by tariff and non-tariff barriers. Indian metal producers have already called for raising import tariffs to protect domestic Industry. And countries like India, which already has a large trade deficit with China, are unlikely to allow any further widening of the gap between export and imports. Given such a scenario it is unlikely that Chinese would venture too far and unleash an impractical currency war that would only hurt global trade where it has much larger stakes than most other nations.
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